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Facundo
Excellent article, straight and to the point. Makes understanding and engagement easier.
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Emily - Speaker/Writer/Coach at ERI
Thank you, Facundo!
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kjh23
There is going to be a big backlash if Roe is overturned. After the so-called heartbeat bill was passed, those that passed it ie. Greg Abbott's poll ratings dropped hugely. I predict a big backlash in Texas, a lot of people, especially women are very angry, I live in Texas so I know.
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Navi
My apologies. The poll actually had Beto down 15 against Abbott, not 13.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?ReleaseID=3830
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Navi
The latest poll has Beto down by 13 and Abbott more trusted on handling abortion (by 8 points). This is from Quinnipiac, which tends to be biased against Republicans. The heartbeat bill is still in effect, and it is supported by the majority of Texans.
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kjh23
No,it is NOT supported by the majority of Texans. I live in Texas and a lot of people, women especially are angry. They very much disagree about the vigilante aspect of it allowing people to snitch on others. Other polls show Abbott and Beto neck in neck. A lot of people take Roe for granted, if it is overturned, it will galvanize a lot women of childbearing age in Texas and elsewhere to vote.
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Navi
Yes, it is. Texas isn’t just Austin you know (several cities have in fact passed their own heartbeat laws by popular referendum). Many people don’t like everything about it, but the statewide law polls at 55 percent. Strong support for women’s rights as well.

https://uh.edu/hobby/txtrends/txtrends2021_report1.pdf

Roe v. Wade is already effectively overturned in Texas. The predominant response is a big shrug. But I encourage you to stay mad about it and give as much as you can to Beto O’Rourke. We all saw how it went the last time abortion advocates went after Greg Abbott.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/texas_monthly_bum_Steer_wendy_davis_texas_democrats_0.jpg
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Mrs. C
Yours is the only article that explains that not just anybody can sue under the law and I can't even find it in searches unless I include the term "Kaake." DuckDuckGo has let me down.
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Mike N
I just hope this short term gain doesn't backfire by prompting Democrats in the US Senate to scrap the filibuster and enact sweeping legislation that overrides all state abortion restrictions.
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Navi
Follow up (x2): many people anticipated that the Texas law would result in a national backlash against pro-life candidates, finally awakening the pro-choice sleeping giant and sweeping Democrats to power. Well, our first real data point is in. Democratic pundits Paul Waldman and Greg Sargent called the Virginia gubernatorial election the "first big test of the new politics of abortion":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/02/get-ready-our-first-big-test-new-politics-abortion/

Indeed, Virginia is a battleground state that's become increasingly tricky for Republicans over the course of the Obama-Trump era. This resulted in abortion extremists winning total control of the state government and rolling back pro-life policies. Terry McAuliffe heavily campaigned on abortion, even campaigning inside an abortion clinic. It didn't work this time, resulting in a pro-life Republican governor set to take office for the first time since 2010 (along with Republicans winning back control of the house). Exit polls showed the pro-abortion narrative fell completely flat. That wasn't the only victory. In Texas itself, Republicans picked up a house seat in a district that went heavily for Joe Biden. It really doesn't look like ending nationwide abortion on demand is going to backfire after all.
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kjh23
If Roe is overturned it will backfire big time. In Virginia, the republican candidate was told not to mention abortion and he came out and said he would not have a Texas style law. He won because he never mentioned abortion and instead focused on critical race theory, so people felt he wouldn't change abortion. The race was very close and a lot of people take abortion rights for granted so felt he was not a threat to them.
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Navi
It wasn’t just Virginia (a state where Democrats have won in the past by running on abortion). It was also a seat in Texas that went heavily for Biden. Independent voters evidently just didn’t care that abortion on demand is gone.
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Navi
Follow up: apparently the backlash to the Texas law, if there even was any, didn’t fundamentally change the national political environment in a way that favours Democrats. Generic ballot polls have Republicans tied or only a couple points behind (the generic ballot has consistently underestimated Republicans over past few cycles, and that doesn’t account for the redistricting process that should help them out quite a bit), on par with or slightly better than the polls from August. Likewise, My Body My Choice Week didn’t restore President Biden’s approval rating. Even Quinnipiac has him underwater, and he’s less popular than Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan, or Carter were 8 months into their first terms. All but one of them saw their party lose seats in the House.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3819
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

Remains to be seen what will happen over the next year (the Supreme Court may overturn Roe, ending legal abortion in many states, and Congressional Democrats will unsuccessfully try to codify abortion up to birth into federal law). But so far, the worst doesn’t look like it will happen.
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Navi
The far left and abortion lobby may be much angrier now than they were a few days ago, but the fundamentals haven't changed. Joe Manchin, the sole moderate Democrat, is still a "no way" on nuking the filibuster and packing the Supreme Court. He also opposes abortion on demand, making it virtually impossible that he'd nuke the filibuster to save it. Kyrsten Sinema, while more of a quirky maverick than a true moderate (Code Pink, Green Party, etc), also opposes nuking the filibuster and has held up so far. And the Democrats need both of their votes.

It's certainly possible that the Texas law and likely demise of Roe v. Wade result in an epic backlash against the GOP come 2022 (resulting in Democrats keeping the House and netting two more far-left senators, allowing them to get rid of the filibuster and pass the more extreme parts of their agenda including abortion up to birth). This is uncharted territory, after all. But the limited experience we have casts doubt on this conventional wisdom. The Partial-Birth Abortion Ban, the Texas law that led to the Wendy Davis saga, the 2019 wave of heartbeat bills, the 2016 vacant SCOTUS seat, and the replacement of RBG with ACB were all supposed to have this result. Yet none of them did. It's very much possible that it will have blown over long before the election (considering how quickly the political news cycle shifts and the president's party's consistent losing streak in midterm elections), or be a boon for the GOP/
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Mr. Andy
"It's certainly possible that the Texas law and likely demise of Roe v. Wade result in an epic backlash against the GOP come 2022"....How so? Would you please explain?
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kjh23
A lot of people have not taken the possibility of Roe being reversed seriously. If the right to abortion is suddenly taken away, there will be a huge backlash among women especially those of childbearing age and this will definately affect swing voters, independents and close races.
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Navi
The elite conventional wisdom is that with Roe v. Wade in place, Republicans are able to virtue-signal about being pro-life without actually ending legalized abortion at the state or federal level (as they can just blame the courts when pro-life laws are struck down without ever going into effect). Although the country is split down the middle on abortion (or even majority pro-choice), pro-life voters are more likely to prioritize the issue giving Republicans a consistent advantage. On the other hand, enough pro-choice people don't see legalized abortion as seriously being in jeopardy so they don't always vote Democrat. After all, Republicans have campaigned on ending abortion for the last 40+ years without making it happen so warnings about Roe being on its last legs can be easily dismissed as hysterical fearmongering. Republican politicians, so the argument goes, get all the benefits of being pro-life without any of the costs. If the Supreme Court finally overturns Roe, Republicans' pro-life stance goes from being purely academic to very real. So Democrats get to rally their base and win a historic victory.

Again, while it's possible that this time really is different (we haven't had most abortions illegal in any state since 1973), I don't think it's very likely. The things I listed didn't result in Democrats winning, even though they were supposed to. And the midterm effect combined with the speed of the news cycle are more consistent factors.
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Navi
Roe v. Wade stands for now, but I think the Supreme Court did tell us something important. The only way Roe gets upheld is if five or more judges are so committed to abortion on demand for ideological or political (e.g. concerns about court packing, the court's popularity, the Greenhouse effect, etc) reasons that they do everything in their power to keep it in place (Constitution, rule of law, or respect for the democratic process be damned). But five justices refused to intervene, resulting in a total shutdown of the abortion industry (in the second-biggest state, no less). That's a clear signal that most of the justices reject the "abortion on demand at all costs" doctrine that produced Casey, Whole Women's Health, June Medical, and indeed Roe itself. With that in mind, pro-lifers have good reason to be optimistic about Dobbs v. Jackson WHO.
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kjh23
Bottom line is if Roe is reversed, it is not going to stop abortion. People will just order pills through the mail. You can order pills when you are not pregnant to keep on hand, that is what people will do.
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Navi
It will save around 100,000 lives every year. That’s more than worth it.